Tag: Baltimore

  • “A small price to pay”?

    “A small price to pay”?

    Last postI presented the depressing fact that at current level of violence, the chance for a man in Baltimore’s Western District to live to age of 35 without being murdered is just 93% [updated to include 2018 data]. Yes, more than 7 percent of black men in the Western District will be murdered unless Baltimore can get a grip on violence. It hasn’t always been so bad.

    Before the riots and failed “reform,” there were about 217 murders a year in Baltimore (2010-2014). That’s not great, mind you. Not at all. Police Commission Davis said:

    They [celebrated] when they got to a certain artificial number of murders. As if 200 murders is acceptable for a city of 600,000 people.

    You know, darn it, at some level he’s right. Two-hundred murders is not acceptable. But… but… the chutzpah. Last year 318 people were murdered in Baltimore. 344 were murdered in 2015. In 2011 murders dropped to 197, the first time in decades murders were below 200. And the current police commissioner has the nerve to disparage city leaders who took a brief celebratory lap? The nerve.

    Right now, for Baltimore, 200 murders wouldn’t just be “acceptable,” it would be a dream. 229 people have been killed this year, and we’re not even out of August.

    (Murders in 2011 vs 2015, Baltimore Sun, click to embiggen)

    It’s not just the violence, it’s that Baltimore’s leaders blame everybody but themselves.

    [Baltimore State’s Attorney Marilyn] Mosby cited zero-tolerance policing as a “failed strategy” that continued in Baltimore long after it was formally disavowed by the city’s leaders. “Those failed policies are what got us to the place we were at in the spring of 2015,” she said, referring to the unrest.

    Blame O’Malley? He left office ten years ago. Violence went up two years ago.

    Davis says:

    “There was a price to pay for” the drop below 200 homicides, a price “that manifested itself in April and May of 2015,” Davis said, referring to the uprising following the death of Freddie Gray.

    Really? So according Davis, years of oppressive policing led to riots. It could be true. (Though I’m shocked to hear Progressives float the idea that repressive policing reduced homicides.) Perhaps the yoke of police oppression led people to rise up righteous indignation?

    Between 1994 and 2014, annual arrest numbers in Baltimore varied from a low of 39,654 to a high of 114,075. You think more than 100,000 arrests each year for four years in a row might spark a riot? Well, it didn’t. That was 2002 to 2005. Murders went up slightly during those years, to 269. If 114,000 arrests didn’t start a riot, it’s hard to imagine fewer than 40,000 doing so. By 2011, arrests were down 50 percent.

    1994arrests: 77,545 — 321 murders

    1995: 81,140 — 325

    1996: 61,403 331

    1997: 77,750 312

    1998: 89,149 313

    1999: 85,029 205

    2000: 86,093 261

    2001: 97,379 256

    2002: 106,117 253

    2003: 114,075 271

    2004: 104,033 278

    2005: 103,837 269

    2006: 93,393 276

    2007: 86,334 282

    2008: 82,656 234

    2009: 79,552 238

    2010: 69,617 224

    2011: 59,877 197

    2012: 55,451 217

    2013: 42,097 235

    2014: 39,654 211

    2015: 27,765 344

    2016: 25,820 318

    Look at at 2007 to 2014, a Baltimore miracle happened! Arrests were cut in half while homicides went down 25 percent, from 282 to 211. This was hard work and good policing. Not perfect, mind you. Sometimes not even good. But better, incrementally, year by year.

    Davis and Mosby are trying to rewrite history, pretending years of progress never happened. Now it’s one thing to be pissed on and be told it’s raining, but these two are pissing all over our feet and telling us we’re better off with wet shoes.

    Go ahead and fix long-term systemic problems. But while you’re doing that, in the meantime, let’s tell police what we want them to do with criminals today. Violence varies independently of poverty, racism, unemployment, segregation, an family breakdown, the so-called “root causes” of crime. These didn’t change in 2015. Policing did. Discouraging proactive legal discretionary policing allowed violent criminals to be more violent. Telling cops not to make legal but discretionary low-level arrests on drug corners was a bad idea.

    There’s only so much decline a city can take. Baltimore’s population is at a 100-year low. And the people leaving, hard-working non-criminal taxpayers, are sick of crime.

    Mosby admits Baltimore “is kind of in transition right now.” I’m afraid Baltimore is transitioning from a city with failures to a failed city.

  • Too much to bear

    Back when I wrote Cop in the Hood, I was horrified to figure out that 11.6 percent of men in the Eastern District were being murdered (see the footnote on pp. 219-222).

    [Updated to include 2018 data and more accurate population figures.]

    From 2015 through 2018, 226 people were murdered in Baltimore’s Western District. 145 were black men age 18 to 34. 36.25/year. This is about twice as high as the pre-2015 rate. There are approximately 7,226 black men aged 18 to 34 in the Western District. (And a total population of 47,600. So the annual homicide rate for 18-to-34-year-old men in the Western District over the past four-years is 419 per 100,000. (The national homicide rate is now about 6 per 100,000; Baltimore’s is 50.)

    What does a murder rate of 419 mean? Well, here’s a survival function:

    1 – (1 – r)^x

    r is the death rate and x is number of years. The death rate is 1 in 239 or .0042. The number of years from 18 to 34 is 17.

    So 1 – (1-.0042)^17 =0.069.

    This means that if homicide levels don’t drop, a 17-year-old man in the Western District today will have a 7 percent chance of being murdered before he reaches the age of 34. And since about one-third of murders in Baltimore happen to those 35 and over, approximately a 10 percent lifetime chance.

    One-in-ten men murdered?! I don’t know what else to say.

    [I thought of some things to say in my next post.]

  • “That’s quite a day’s work.”

    “That’s quite a day’s work.”

    Yesterday this video came outof Baltimore officer putting gel caps of heroin in a can, placing the can in trash in an alley, leaving the alley, and then “starting” his body cam and going to discover the heroin where he put it. Problem is, for the cops, the camera records video for 30 seconds preceding the press of the on button.

    A man was arrested related to this and held on $50,000 bail. Nobody put up the 10 percent needed to get out, so he had been in jail for the past 7 months. He was released yesterday (eventually) after the video came out.

    These seem to be possibilities, based on the video:

    Option A: Dirty cops planted drugs on an innocent person.

    Option B: Dirty cops planted drugs on a guilty person.

    Option C: Dirty cops realized they forgot to turn on their body cameras, and decided to recreate the discovery, based on a true story.

    Option D: Well-intentioned but stupid cops forgot to turn on their body cameras when the did find the drugs, and decided to recreate the discovery, inspired by a true story.

    Option E: It’s all some great misunderstanding and somehow this is acceptable police work.

    I’m going to dismiss Option E, as has every cop I’ve spoken to.

    Here’s what makes this video so odd. Not exactly the “what,” but the “why?” If you were planting drugs to frame an innocent (or guilty of something else) person, you’d plant the drugs on the person. It doesn’t make sense to plant drugs in a stash because (absent other evidence) people in Baltimore City don’t get prosecuted for a stash of drugs. This is why drug dealers use a stash (it also provides loss protection against robbery). You can’t prove possession without a direct eyes-on chain-of-custody from person to stash. And even then you can’t prove the stash belongs to a person who just happens to be reached into it.

    I wrote about this kind of scenario in Cop in the Hood.

    Could there be a chase of an innocent person, with drugs planted to provide probable cause for arrest? Could be in theory, but I don’t think so here because the drugs were not planted in a place where somebody would throw them while running from cops. No, the drugs were placed in a can, in a drug stash. So maybe this was a reenactment based on a true story. This scenario, which is where I would place my money, is also the saddest. I mean, it was stupid, damaging to police, and harmful to the prosecution of criminals. It was also career ending directorial choice. And for what? That’s what gets me about so-called “noble cause” corruption. Why? (See #3, below.)

    Other issues:

    1) $50,000 bail is a lot of bail, especially for a drug arrest in Baltimore.

    2) Even after watching the video, the State’s Attorney’s office (the public prosecutor) at first only offered time-served. What the hell? It can’t be said often enough what a disaster Marilyn Mosby, Baltimore City’s elected State’s Attorney, has been. Baltimore is a city without effective leadership at the top. One quality of leadership is to take responsibility for what happens under your watch. This does not happen in Baltimore. Bad leadership has consequences.

    3) And it’s always a good time to periodically repeat that almost all police corruption stems from drug prohibition. How’s that war working out? You think the fifth decade will be charm? I don’t. The war on drugs will not be won. And the damage from the fight — to families, communities, incarceration, police — is immense and entirely self-inflicted. Society could better deal with the problems of drug use without police.

    And it’s not that all drug cops are dirty. That’s important to say not to defend cops, but to not excuse the dirty ones. Being involved in narcotics is not an excuse to be a dirty cop; that’s on the cop. But if we want to get rid of police corruption on a systemic level, you need to get police out of the drug game. Just like we did with gambling: regulate and control the supply and distribution. Voila! Cops are no longer on the take with the numbers’ racket.

    But back to the issue at hand. In some ways this is all academic. (But hell, I am an academic.) I’d really like to read the arrest report and statement of probable cause. But there is no scenario where this video is good or defensible. Whether it’s planting drugs or a dramatic re-enactment, it’s bad. David Rocah is 100 percent correct. From Justin Fenton’s and Kevin Rector’s story in the Sun (well worth reading):

    David Rocah, senior staff attorney with the ACLU of Maryland, said that even “a faked recreation of officers finding the untied bag of drugs” would still be “potentially criminal” and should be a violation of police rules.

    Rocah criticized the state’s attorney’s office for “the total lack of any apparent systemic response” to the incident, including putting the officer on the stand in another case after the video was flagged.

    Rocah said it was “insane” that state laws that bar the disclosure of disciplinary records for police officers would prevent the public from seeing the results of the Police Department’s investigation or knowing how it punished the officers internally.

    Rocah also said “there is zero reason to trust any video or any statement from any of these officers” given what was clearly observable in the video flagged by the public defender’s office.

    “So even if it is indeed true that they simply staged a re-creation of finding the drugs, these officers have not only destroyed their own credibility, they have single-handedly destroyed the credibility of every piece of video where BPD officers find contraband without a clear lead-in that negates the possibility of it being staged,” Rocah said. “That’s quite a day’s work.”

    Update: Indeed, this officer forgot to turn on his body-cam when he went and found the stash. So he decided to recreate the scene as it actually happened, potentially a firing offense. Counterfactually, had he simply fessed up (or been caught) failing to turn on his body camera, the departmental punishment would have been verbal counseling.

  • How to make people care about violence

    How to make people care about violence

    Over at Nola Crime News, Jeff Asher tweeted this graphicjust now.

    Click on it; it moves! So while people are dying, I’m thinking about data presentation. There’s something about a moving line that may make one pay attention to dead people in a way that actual dead people don’t.

    Jeff’s graphic looks at Baltimore City shooting victims over the past 365 days. Each data point tallies the total number of shooting victims over the past 365 day. This nullifies seasonal change, which is worth a lot. But by taking a past-year average, you lose the “BAM” of what happened literally overnight, after six police officers were criminally charged for the death of Freddie Gray. The violence didn’t just “increase.” It stepped up, by two-thirds. Overnight. After April 27, 2015. The visual above indicates a rapid but continuous increase over the course of a year. But it’s still a good visual and can’t think of better one.

    I don’t know how to present a good visual that shows what has happened in Baltimore. In the past I’ve tried with a pre- and post-riot trend line. Not just once, but twice. But that’s hardly convinced the masses that police (or more dead bodies) matter.

    People are already talking about the rise in violence in Baltimore in terms of poverty or drugs or police legitimacy or blah-dee-blah. And sure, all that matters. But stop it! None of that, not any of that, explains the increase in violence. Police because less proactive because A) innocent cops were criminally charged and B) Political pressure (from the mayor, the police commissioner, and the US DOJ) told police to be less proactive as a means to reduce racial disparity in policing. You see it Baltimore. You see it Chicago. You see it in New Orleans. The problem is you’re seeing it basically everywhere.

    Here’s New Orleans, again from Jeff Asher.

    These increases are no joke. This is a “holy shit” type increase in violence. And the chart under-presents the quickness of the increase.

    What happened in New Orleans? I don’t know NOLA as well as Baltimore or New York. But the NOLA PD has seen a 30 percent reduction in manpower and a massive reduction in proactive policing (as measured by drug enforcement. I also suspect the consent decree hasn’t helped police in terms of crime prevention, since, and this is important: crime prevention isn’t one iota of any consent decree. Somehow, crime is supposed to manage itself while police are better managed.

    The only big city of note without an increase in violence is NYC. And even here, people objectto the exact kind of proactive policingthat keeps crime from rising. Luckily, at least in New York, even liberal Mayor de Blasio isn’t listening to the “police are the problem” posse.

  • “The corrupt and brutal ones always work together as if pulled by some magnetic force”

    “The corrupt and brutal ones always work together as if pulled by some magnetic force.” (Perhaps said by a Chicago cop, but I can neither cite nor verify.) I think the reason why, might be as simple as the fact that nobody likes to be given the stink-eye by their colleagues. So if most people disapprove of what you do, you eventually get drawn like-minded folk who appreciate your work ethic and style. In the police world, for the more aggressively inclined, this means a specialized unit that focuses on arrests for drugs (and guns and maybe vice). And then, in precious semi-isolation, you feed and build on the habits of those most similar to you.

    I wrote about the federal indictment of seven Baltimore City police officers yesterday (the actual indictment is here) and said: “This is about bad apples. But it’s not just about bad apples. There’s the barrel that allows these apples to rot.”

    Who else is to blame? How do we prevent this from happening again? Who said, “Crime is up! Get me guns! And take all the overtime you need”? Who ignored complaints because the “numbers” were good?

    I don’t have the answers. But these are sincere questions. Because true organizational change best happens from within. Things sure didn’t improve when innocent Baltimore copswere criminally charged after the death of Freddie Gray. And the solution sure won’t be found in some faddish mandatory training course in implicit-bias or gender-based stereotypes. Bad reform does more harm than good. Good cops will work less; bad cops work harder.

    Last year I spent a fair amount of time criticizing the DOJ’s report on the Baltimore City Police Department. And for good reason. The DOJ report was anonymously written, horribly researched, and basically per-ordained boilerplate designed to document just enough systemic bias to activate the legal trigger needed to implement a federal consent decree while simultaneously absolving current political and police leaders of any and all accountability for the current mess Baltimore is in. These so-called investigators went to Baltimore while this crap was going on and the worst they could find were some poorly written arrest reports from five years ago?

    But I also wrote this:

    Mixed in with questionable methodology, intentions, and anecdotes, there’s some of God’s awful truth in this DOJ report. Yes, the department is a dysfunctional organization that keeps going only because of the dedication of rank-and-file who do their best, despite it all.

    I tried to highlight what the report got right. I hoped things would get better, but I didn’t think they would:

    Maybethis DOB report will improve the department despite itself. Though I might be wrong, I doubt it. I suspect people will ignore [what’s wrong with the organization] and just focus on eliminating discretionary proactive policing that saves lives. If policing has taught me anything, it’s that things can always get worse. Or, as has been said: “I have never seen a situation so dismal that a policeman couldn’t make it worse.”

    It did get worse.

    I also wrote this about the DOJ report:

    Accountability ends above the civil-service ranks. Why is that? Where is the leadership and accountability on high? Nobody blames the bosses — the mayor and police commissioner in particular — for the dysfunction of the department they control.

    You think cops like working with (the very small minority of really) bad cops? Hell, no. But the system has no way to get rid of them. So you make do. You have to.

    I defend most police officers because I’ve been there. … I’ve had to work with cops I wouldn’t trust as far as I can throw.

    So fix it, dammit. Good cops want to, but they can’t.

    And thenwe get to a failed discipline process.

    [From the DOJ Report:] The system has several key deficiencies.

    It is clear that the Department has been unable to interrupt serious patterns of misconduct. Our investigation found that numerous officers had recurring patterns of misconduct that were not adequately addressed. Similarly, we note that, in the past five years, 25 BPD officers were separately sued four or more times for Fourth Amendment violations.

    You might call that a red flag.

    How much do you want to bet that one or more of the just-indicted officers are on that list? But did anybody do anything?

    You know what might help: figure out who didn’t do the wrong thing. What you have here is an inadvertent integrity sting. Now I know you’re not supposed to get credit for doing what you’re expected to do. But you might find something out from who (if anybody) in that squad didn’t abuse overtime. Whose name didn’t come up in a wire tap? Who entered the squad, had a look around, and left right away thinking, “maybe uniform patrol isn’t so bad after all”? But that’s not the way these things work.

    [Update: According to Justin Fenton in the Sun these seven were the entire squad. As to spending your career “risking your life” to protect others as a defense, this clip from Scott and Bailey comes to mind.]

    It’s not that good cops cover for bad cops as much as they stay the fuck away from them. Why? Because if you know enough to rat somebody out, you’re already in way too deep. And if you don’t know enough, well, what are you supposed to do? Go to Internal Affairs and say, “I’ve heard rumors”? And what if some of the rumors happen to be about Internal Affairs? Nope. What you do is put on blinders to cover your ass. Why? Because when the shit hits the fan, you don’t want to be anywhere near it. This is not a Blue Wall of Silence as much as a Blue Cone of Silence. And when the bad cops are off segregated in their own unit, it makes it so much easier to see no evil. If your Spidey Sense tingles, you stay the hell away.

    And the solution — and this is always the case — needs to focus on the wrongdoers rather than be collective punishment on the majority, who are good. From my book, Cop in the Hood:

    Some officers enter the police department corrupt. Others fall on their own free will. Still others may have an isolated instance of corruption in an otherwise honest career. But there is no natural force pulling officers from a free cup of coffee toward shaking down drug dealers. Police can omit superfluous facts from a police report without later perjuring themselves in court. Working unapproved security overtime does not lead to a life in the mob. Officers can take a cat nap at 4 a.m. and never abuse medical leave. There is no slope. If anything, corruption is more like a Slip ‘N Slide. You can usually keep your footing, but it’s the drugs that make everything so damn slippery.

    As to overtime, from 15 year ago:

    To control overtime pay, superiors also discourage late discretionary arrests. While a legitimate late arrest may result in a few extra hours of overtime pay, the sergeant signing the overtime slip is likely to ask details about the arrest to confirm the legitimacy before adding an extra hour or two and giving very explicit instructions to “go straight home.”

    This “rounding up” of overtime was pretty common. And I’ll even defend it as one of the only carrots a boss has to reward somebody for doing a good job. Regardless, it is a far cry from what seems to have happened here.

  • Seven Baltimore cops indicted

    The Feds arrested seven Baltimore City cops today. I don’t know all the details yet, but the robbery charges seem major. “Robberies while wearing a police uniform,” I just heard. But you know what? Even without knowing the details I can go out on a very short limb and predict a few things. Why? Because it’s always the same. And that’s what makes it so frustrating. It’s like we never learn.

    Articles in the Wall Street Journal and the Baltimore Sun. And an unrelated scandal in Chicago. Though I will read these stories thoroughly. It bothers me that I don’t have to. Some things are always the same. Always:

    • Drugs. Always drugs. I’m not one for “root causes” theories in the abstract, but if you want to end police corruption, you’ve got to end drug prohibition. That’s it. Until then, this will happen. This only question is when, where, and how often. The drug game is dirty. And it is a game with arbitrary rules. It taints all involved, even the honest cops.

    • A specialized unit, removed from the generally non-corrupt culture of most police officers.

    • A selective unit, in that people don’t just get assigned there. Officers need to self-select. And the more aggressive cowboys do. And this aggressive hot-headed police sub-culture can feed on itself. Here’s something you may not know: most officers have no desire to work with those cops. Why? Because most cops don’t like they way they operate. Do cops know they’re dirty? No. But they certainly suspect things aren’t kosher. So the good cops stay away. You stay away because there’s guilt by association in the police department, and when the shit hits the fan, and it always does, you don’t want to find yourself in the jackpot.

    • Red flags galore. Let me guess, the officers involved had tons of overtime (this seems to be one of the charges). Too much legal (or illegal) overtime is a red flag. But usually what now happens is the department cracks down on all overtime. Collective punishment, in essence. And that will only piss off the honest cops who are trying to do their job.

    I bet a few of these cops are “highly decorated.” Yes, too many awards is a flag.

    I’m also going to guess there were a lot of complaints against these officers over the years. Now of course if you do aggressive work you’ll get more complaints than some lazy hump who never gets out of their car. And you need to be careful not to see every complaint as legit, because most are BS. But still, when you get a dozen complaints — use of force, discourtesy, the whole nine yards — in a year or two? I think of the line from the Wire:

    “…which for Herc will make an even four in the last two years.”

    “None sustained.”

    “But all of them true.”

    On the flip side, you can’t treat every complaint as a career hold. That’s how you get the maxim, “If you don’t work you can’t get in trouble.” Flags aren’t guilt. That’s why they call them “flags.” You notice them. You investigate. And maybe there’s nothing to them. But sometimes there is. Somebody up top needs to notice these flags. And somebody with authority, you know, a “leader,” needs to put their neck on the line and take action.

    • High “productivity.” You want guns and drugs and cash on the table? You reward officers for arrests? Then you get this. (Not always, mind you. Not immediately. Not all officers. But yes, eventually it is inevitable). It’s not easy to balance “productivity” on one hand with “laziness” on the other. But I’m telling you, there’s a huge middle ground into which fall 80 percent of cops.

    • Bad supervision. The sergeant got arrested, and this implies the squad was rotten to its core. So, I can’t help but wonder, who was the Lieutenant? Go on up the chain of command, for a change. Not just to punish and blame, but to inquire, reform, and figure out how this happened. Did the LT close his or her eyes because of pressure from higher up? I don’t know. Where exactly was the communication breakdown? Because this is about bad apples. But it’s not just about bad apples. There’s the barrel that allows these apples to rot.

    The military-like chain-of-command does nothing more efficiently than suppress open communication. In a police department, it’s too easy to put on blinders and not know what is happening around you. In fact, you’d be a fool to do otherwise. This is not the same as a “blue wall of silence,” mind you. But it is a problem. But even if those higher up don’t know about the crimes happening under them, it’s still a failure of leadership.

    Anyway, I’m just writing about scandals in general. But if these facts are true in this case — and I bet they are — isn’t that, as they say in the police world, a clue?

  • Sometimes there are good guys and bad guys

    A Baltimore police officer shot and killed an armed man who pointed a loaded gun at him.

    You’d think this would be cut and dried. But no. It’s Baltimore.

    I mean really, if any police-involved shooting is clear cut. It’s this one. Luckily for police, the cop had a body camera. Luckily it captures (barely) the key moment. Deal, a known violent offender, raises his loaded gun to shoot the cop.

    The cop, thank God, is quicker on the draw. Deal is shot and killed. And that’s where this story should end.

    But no, not in Baltimore, where officers are often criticized for doing the right thing.

    Commissioner Davis received flack at a press conference defending the cop, in part because he called Deal a “bad guy.” Why besmirch the dead? Because maybe some issues need to be presented without moral relativism. Because if you don’t point out there’s right and wrong here, people will fill in the void with an alternative facts. Also, you owe it to your officers to support them through tough times.

    [Have you killed somebody? Me, neither. But friends of mine have. And it’s not easy on them, no matter how justified and necessary the killing was. And it’s more difficult if people are saying you made a bad choice, especially when you didn’t.]

    In this case the City Papertakes aim at the cops in really one of the most idiotic police-related articles I’ve ever read. I like the City Paper. I’ve been reading it (admittedly not regularly anymore) for almost 20 years.

    According to the story, the reason you don’t know about this shooting is because “national news is at a chaotic premium right now.” Actually, no. First of all, you are reading about it cause it’s in all the papers and on the TV news.

    But what’s reckless about the City Paper story goes beyond this shooting. You may not follow this as closely as I do, but indeed, many “reformers” do not want police to be proactive at all. The story in the City Paper criticizes police for being part of the system wherein Deal ends up being shot and killed.

    Less proactive policing is the goal, the position of the DOJ report on the BPD. The DOJ asserts many things, which others may then take as Gospel because the DOJ said so. This is a real problem. The report says police shouldn’t confront/chase/arrest active violent offenders, especially if their identity is known. After all, somebody may get hurt:

    The need for the suspect’s immediate apprehension must be weighed against the risks to officers and the public caused by engaging in a foot pursuit. If officers know the identity of the suspect, his or her immediate apprehension is likely unnecessary without exigent circumstances. However, if circumstances require that the suspect be immediately apprehended, officers should contain the suspect and establish a perimeter rather than engaging in a foot pursuit, particularly if officers believe the suspect may be armed.

    Let’s talk this through.

    Man armed with an illegal gun, so you set up a “perimeter.” (Sounds cool!) How do you do that?

    What if Deal simply turns the corner and goes in a home of a friend and closes the door. (Or worse a stranger’s home.) Do you send in the militarized SWAT team? What if you didn’t see which house. Do you start banging on all the doors? That’s not really community policing. Or maybe, since you know who Deal is, you go back to the station and start filling out an arrest warrant. (Meanwhile, calls for service are backing up until the “perimeter” is called off.)

    Or what if Deal puts his gun in his waistband and runs through a vacant building into the alley. Baltimore is not like New York, where blocks are often solid with buildings and there are no alleys. But let’s say there happens to be four units at the ready (fat chance) to block off the street and sit in the rear alleys. Then what? Is a cop back there? What does she do? She was given a description of young black male, black hoodie, jeans. How does she know if it’s Deal? Does she start stopping all young black males who “match the description”? And what if Deal runs from her? Do you set up a new “perimeter”?

    And then what?

    At some point police will have to confront Deal.

    That’s why we have police. Police confront “bad guys” so we don’t have to. (Not to say Deal didn’t have any redeeming qualities, it’s just that I don’t think they’re particularly relevant in this incident.)

    Perimeter or not, assuming Deal doesn’t voluntarily put himself in handcuffs, you either chase, catch, and cuff Deal, or you police in such a manner where you do not cross his path. And if you do the latter, it would failure of the fundamental role of police in society. But when police do get the memo (or lawsuit) and police less proactively, crime goes up and people complain police aren’t doing their job. Sigh.

    I’d prefer to resolve the apprehension of an armed gunman here and now rather than have it play out for hours or days. Especially if I lived on that block. What message does it send it police let Deal walk away? Now that would be a real blow to police legitimacy.

    If there is a story here, it’s about the failure of society, and in particular Baltimore’s criminal justice system that was unwilling or unable to keep Deal off the streets. I mean, how does one even manage to get arrested and released three times in one month? Not only to you have to be a horrible criminal, you have to be kind of bad at it. Even Mosby’s often incompetent State’s Attorney’s office wanted Deal held without bail! From the Sun:

    For the third time in a month, 18-year-old Curtis Deal had been arrested on gun or drug charges. Judge Nicole Taylor wanted to be sure the young man understood what was expected if she released him to wait for trial.

    “You’re not going out at night, you’re not going to get food, you’re not going to meet your girlfriend. You’re in your house,” Taylor told him at Monday’s bail review hearing, raising her voice.

    “I’m giving you an opportunity to go to school and not be in jail pending this trial. The curfew is 1 p.m., 7 days a week.”

    Deal said he understood. Taylor wished him luck.

    The next day about 3 p.m., Deal was fatally shot by a Baltimore police detective

    It’s worth reading the whole article by Kevin Rector and Carrie Wells in the Sun. It’s a fine piece of journalism.

  • Will a Consent Decree Help or Hurt Baltimore City Police Officers?

    [This is a guest post by Jacob Lundy. He has ten years of law enforcement experience including street crimes, homicide, academy instruction, and consent decree compliance. He wrote this for Copinthehood.com in the hope that Baltimore can learn from what he and the City of New Orleans have gone through. The selective bolding is mine, but what follows is Jacob’s. He writes here as a policy advisor to the New Orleans Fraternal Order of Police.]

    An absurdly concise title for a piece tackling one of the most expensive, sprawling, and lately, ubiquitous endeavors most major police agencies will navigate. This question — frequently posed to me by legislators, criminal justice professionals, and citizens — is certainly on the minds of Baltimoreans in recent weeks.

    The answer, as you might expect, is not so concise.

    I believe the more appropriate question may be “are consent decrees necessary?” My short answer to this questions is, perhaps surprisingly, usually. My assessment should not be taken as a slight to police officers who work tirelessly day and night in Baltimore and elsewhere who may feel that a consent decree is an indictment on your service. Certainly DOJ’s recently published investigation of the Baltimore Police Department was not flattering, but such reports are equally if not more overtly critical of overextended leadership, outdated policies, and political machinations that manifest in the problems documented by Justice.

    Consent decrees are a mixed bag, to be sure; I believe the real debate lies in how long they should last, how invasive they should be, and how compliance teams, officers, and Justice might get started as collaboratively as their relationship will eventually become. Below I have tried to outline some of the most salient matters facing Baltimore police officers.

    In my view, two major problems lead to the conditions we see facing police in major American cities today. First and foremost is the ever growing list of social problems shifted onto the backs of law enforcement. We are a country obsessed with fighting symptoms rather than tackling root causes, and nowhere is this phenomenon more visible than the front seat of a police car. Guns, healthcare, schools, drug addiction, economics, mental health — all of these have been relegated to law enforcement with little notice.

    Secondarily, policing will always be a series of competing priorities, especially as agencies continue to be pulled in so many directions. A cop in one neighborhood equals a void in another. A cop tied up with paperwork is a cop not engaged in crime abatement. Forty cops attending in-service training means forty empty police cars. On a larger scale, one million taxpayer dollars invested in a police behavior early-warning system results in a tangible deficit in overtime patrols. This is clearly a zero-sum game, which naturally dictates where precious resources are directed.

    These two realities create tremendous downward pressure for street level law enforcement to maintain order by whatever means they can improvise in the field. This is where impromptu and often unconstitutional stratagem are born, such as “clearing corners.” With a dearth of root cause solutions, field officers know that “clearing corners” may alienate residents but reduce shootings in twenty-minute intervals. As Peter Hermann in the Washington Post recently pointed out, Western District Baltimore reported 66 murders in its 2.8 square miles in 2015. Police officers in urban America have been triaging violent crime block by block for years.

    Once a consent decree is implemented in the affected jurisdiction, the near immediate upside for law enforcement tends to be a reprieve from this relentless and unsustainable pace. While consent decrees are well known by now for their sweeping reforms to agency policies, use of force training and investigation, general oversight (typically layered and civilian), detention and arrest demographic reporting, community policing and engagement strategies, and constitutional policing generally; what is less well known are the considerable benefits to the rank and file.

    Consent decrees direct resources to officers in the form of extensive job training and professional development, support services, and incidentally, a more orderly and professional workplace. Many large police departments in recent years have become pressure cookers of untenable workloads which naturally results in job stress that is passed on to the public. The Department of Justice notes in nearly every consent decree that substantive discipline is lacking — most cops will acknowledge that malicious extrajudicial discipline is rampant. Such practices tend to naturally wane with the outsider presence.

    While I see a number such improvements in New Orleans’ consent decree era, I will admit that even I was surprised when in a recent police forum an overwhelming majority of colleagues present described their workplace as “dramatically improved” over the past few years.

    In the next two years Baltimore officials will likely (hopefully) be surprised by how collaborative and productive their relationship with DOJ will be. Admittedly, Justice is seen by field officers as an occupying faction in the initial months. And while field officers will lament the increase in administrative tasks for years to come; they often are equally surprised by their eventual relationship with Justice. While every city presents unique challenges, an early key to success is embracing the inevitable change and being proactive — Baltimore officials have clearly adopted this strategy.

    Consent decrees come with predictable drawbacks as well as some unexpected consequences peculiar to each jurisdiction. Chief among complaints are substantial costs [ed note: $11 million per year in New Orleans] and a distraction from basic crime control. Calls will take longer and result in longer wait times. Many also see the precipitous increase in administrative burdens as excessive, which compounds these problems.

    While there is a lack of any major corpus of data on the effects of current and former consent decrees in these areas, I believe one clear effect is their tendency to shine a glaring light on deficiencies in domestic policy and highlight some of the truly fundamental issues facing the future of policing in America. Wherever the reader chooses to point blame, these significant problems exist and need to be addressed. Baltimore and Chicago are struggling through one of the most violent years in decades.

    Rank and file officers can expect to see a slightly emboldened criminal population; many will feign vindication in light of DOJ’s report and challenge local law enforcement’s legitimacy during interactions. Defense attorneys will wave printed copies of the DOJ report on Baltimore in open court as general evidence of your “corruption.” Officers should also prepare for major changes to the handling of citizen complaints and discipline in general. Most complaints will essentially be taken at face value until disproved. Discipline will almost certainly be widespread and strictly applied until there is inevitable pushback, and then Baltimore and Justice eventually find a compromise. All of this will predictably take a toll on morale, the acute symptoms of which are temporary. All Baltimore area police labor groups should be proactive in approaching DOJ early on and getting a seat at the table. Baltimore officials should view New Orleans’ dedicated and invested compliance team and its relationship with the monitoring team as a model for progress.

    To DOJ’s credit, the agency openly acknowledges that consent decrees evolve, and with each passing year they learn from experience and actively work to improve the process for all involved. I think it is impossible to deny that the initial drain on resources creates a vacuum in crime control and increases in response times. I believe this is a primary area where we should expect improvement. Local crime is not the responsibility of DOJ per se, but any negative impact on crime control affects local populations; an increase in crime is contrary to both agencies’ long-term goals. A potential solution to this very real concern may involve historical analysis followed by an agreed upon strategy to minimize the potential for such scenarios prior to implementation. I also believe future monitoring teams should reach out to and engage rank and file officers either directly or through labor groups early on. New Orleans’ monitoring team are transparent and honest about their goals and expectations and are quite easy to work with, but it took longer than necessary in my opinion for field officers to feel confident in this fact.

    Whether the observer believes DOJ is infringing on the autonomy of state and local governments — who are merely struggling to control violent crime within their borders — or rightly stepping in to enforce the nation’s primary source of law; one immutable fact every similarly situated city has discovered is that arguing the legal merits of intervention is largely a waste of time. Consent Decrees appear to be here to stay; existing consent decrees are likely the best reference for any city wishing to avoid one.

  • 40 shooting victims and 672 arrests? “That’s ridiculous!”

    CBS reports:

    At least 52 people were shot across [Chicago] over the weekend, including nine homicides.

    (“At least”? Has it got so bad that we can’t even keep track?)

    Chicago Police Supt. Eddie Johnson, talking about the 40 victims known to police, is “sick of it”:

    672 arrests? That’s ridiculous!

    There’s a certain segment of the community that is driving this violence. The police department is doing its job. We’re arresting these individuals. Where we’re missing the boat is we’re not holding them accountable.”

    2,639 people have been shot in Chicago this year. That’s an increase of more than 50 percent from last year. That really is ridiculous.

    And it’s even worse in Baltimore. Stephen Morgan, my Harvard squash mate — I love saying that because, put together, those might be the four snootiest words in the English language! (That said, in grad school Steve and I did play squash once or twice, and I’m pretty sure I won.) — anyway, Steve sent me these numbers for Baltimore:

    28 days beginning Monday 6/27/16

    Homicide 33

    Shooting 63

    Carjacking 32

    Street robbery 283

    28 days beginning Monday 6/29/15

    Homicide 38

    Shooting 84

    Carjacking 31

    Street robbery 327

    Prior five-year average of equivalent four weeks (from 2010 through 2014)

    Homicide 18.4

    Shooting 38.2

    Carjacking 13.6

    Street robbery 210.6

    If there was any doubt, murdres and shooting doubled after last year’s April riot. There’s a link to his updated report (and a few other things) here.

    But when I bring up increased crime, I feel like half the world is gas-lighting me. First there’s this inevitable rebuke: “Fear mongering! Crime isn’t up. It’s at all time low!”. There’s usually talk about the the “latest available data” as if time stopped in 2014. Yeah, back then crime was at a many-decades low. But now it’s not. Who you gonna believe?

    If history is any guide, liberals really should not concede crime fears to the Right. Yes, the public always thinks crime is getting worse. But now those fears just happen to reflect reality. So rather than say, “you were wrong for years” it behooves us to say, “OK, now you are right, and what are we going to do about it?”

    Politically, I don’t want to the only people responsive to rising crime to be Trump and the “law-and-order.” They scare me. But every time anybody, myself included, dares think about what has happened in the past two years that might impact crime, you get the inevitable “correlation isn’t causation” mantra. Makes me bang my head against the wall! Even Steve agrees. (And Steve, unlike me, is a quantitative stats guy.)

    Correlation actually can be indicative of causation. At the very least, it’s a clue. I mean, what else has changed so dramatically except police and crime? And some point, if you get enough correlation and have taken other variables into account (and reach an all too arbitrary “there’s less than a 1 in 20 chance it’s random”), well, that’s what qualitative social scientists call “proof.” And then if you don’t like the conclusion, you harp on measurement error or non-random missing data.

    Morgan writes (he always has sounded more academic than me. How does he do that?):

    I think it is undeniable that this is a downstream effect of the “unrest” last year, but there are still a lot of unanswered (and some probably unanswerable) questions on the particular mechanism that generated the effect.

    I’m more rash than Steve, quicker to point at the mechanism of decreased discretionary proactive policing as indicated by, you know, by cops telling me their do less discretionary proactive policing. (If you prefer your data more dry and processed, you could look at reduced arrest numbers.)

    Let’s play the counterfactual game. Pretend crime went gone down in Baltimore after April of last year but everything else stayed the same. Well, what then would be some possible reasons? People would be pointing to less proactive policing as part of the solution. They might say crime went down because of the indictment of cops. Perhaps this increased police “legitimacy.” Or maybe the presence of DOJ investigaters improved policing and lowered crime. Maybe City Council President Jack Young and State Sen. Catherine Pugh’s celebrated gang truce” saved lives. But none of that is true. Becuause violence doubled. We’ll never have definitive proof. There will always be “a lot of unanswered (and some probably unanswerable) questions on the particular mechanism that generated the effect.” But until somebody can show me something else that makes sense, I’m quite happy to Occam’s Razor this baby and focus on a massive decline in proactive and aggressive policing. It really is ridiculous.

  • Teach your children well

    Just came across this gem, that happened back when I was on the street. It’s community policing, with an Eastern District twist.

    While going around the block and stopped at an intersection (321 Post), two boys, 10-to-13 years old, come up near the window of my car, and one says to another: “give me the money.”

    “How much?”I ask.

    “$50”

    “How’d you get $50?” I asked.

    “$50,000!”

    “Whew, that’s a lot of money.”

    They come up to my window and one says, “lock me up!”

    “What have you done?”

    “Lock me up at take me to city hall!”

    “If we take you to city hall, what would you tell the mayor?” I’m thinking this is a great opportunity for ‘stop the violence’ or ‘we need more schools.’

    “Tell the mayor I’ll bomb his house and rape his wife!”

    How does one respond to this? It’s not easy to leave a cop speechless. I drove off.