Baltimore is one of the only cities in America that didn’t see a rise in murder in 2020. (The other being Newark, NJ.) That’s the good news. The bad news is that murder in Baltimore increased by 2/3rd after the riots of April 27, 2015 and a subsequent change in policing (“depolicing”) as demanded by “reformers.” The rise in violence was not “just a blip.” It became the new normal. It’s stayed at that high level ever since.
It is possible that there is a certain level of violence that any given city might see with proactive policing. And other without proactive policing.
What this might mean is that the increase in shootings and murder almost every city saw in 2020 — the largest one-year increase American has ever seen — is likely here to stay. I hope I’m wrong. But I wouldn’t expect any improvement unless police get back to policing repeat violent offenders, and unless prosecutors prosecute those offenders even for non-violence crimes. And unless some of the offenders are held in jail.
Let us not forget that for well over a decade America managed to bring down both crime and incarceration. But you would never have known that listening to reformers push for ever less policing and ever less prosecution and jail. They seemed unaware of the progress that had and was being made. Politically, criminal justice reform can only happen when there a basic level of public safety and public order. More importantly, just because somebody calls it “reform” doesn’t mean it’s automatically a good idea.
Source for the incarceration and crime stats?
Murder stats by day I’ve gathered for a decade, from https://homicides.news.baltimoresun.com/.
Incarceration from anywhere google takes you, for instance: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/02/americas-incarceration-rate-is-at-a-two-decade-low/
Hey there Peter. Matty Yglesias just published this long piece on how to reform police departments, taking aim at the entire defund the police narrative while proposing other concrete steps, many of which require more money, not less.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/fixing-the-police-will-take-more?r=1m26h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy
I look forward to hearing you thoughts. BTW, I grew up in Maryland, outside Baltimore, currently live near John Jay, and volunteer as an auxiliary in the Central Park Precinct.
Thanks!
Ever since the riots initiated, police and crime have gone up. I hope your theory on new crime doesn’t come to fruition. The police does not need to be defunded, it needs to have more force to enable their jobs to keep the public safe and protected. Have a wonderful day Mr. Moskos.
New violence is a very scary thought, as we lose more people to unnecessary violence. I hope your theory on increase mass shooting is false, but who knows what people are thinking nowadays. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the matter, and I hope you have an excellent day.
Hopefully new violence does not become the new normal. It is sad to lose lives to unnecessary violence.
Violence is the new norm indeed unfortunately. The riots came and brought up the number of crimes. Police need all the help and support they are human as well. Great writing Mr. Moskos.
The police need more funding than ever before and they also need better training. “Defunding” the police is not the answer because we need the police to keep communities safe from violence and riots. There should be a standard for training, physical physique, and communication (to defuse a situation without using force/violence). I hope to see a decrease in violence this year so it does not become the new norm. Interesting stats have a great day.
Society today has created a social norm to rebel against the criminal justice system with acronyms such as ACAB being extremely popular at the moment it wouldn’t be a surprise that the crime rate would go up and be here to stay. The idea that you state that these numbers are going to go up and stay up seems like an accurate idea as its similar to increase back in 2015 and as the great saying goes history tends to repeat itself
Hey there, I currently live in the southern part of Texas, the Rio Grande Valley to be exact. Now reading your post and comparing it to the current situation in the border it makes me realize that this can be the reflection among my city and the valley itself. As of right now, do you truly believe that having a border wall will help decrease or at least prevent criminal activity crossing to this country. My head is wrapped in the idea that it will help in a certain extended but knowing the fact that many Mexicans will find a way around it and I am sure of this because I come from Mexican descendants, and we always tend to find things around things.
Good morning Mr. Moskos, unfortunately, violence is the new norm. The violence is seen amongst all states, specially democratic states. These states have even called rioting some form of peaceful protesting. It is unfortunate that people have thought about defunding the police when they’re needed the most. Defunding the police will not help at all, instead it will bring more violence due to low manpower. The law has to be enforced at all times, not only when there is a spike in crime. The law is required and is here to stay whether some people like it or not. I hope you have a great day Mr. Moskos, stay safe.
It is not surprising that the crime rate continues to rise due to people having disrespect for law enforcement. Society is not being controlled by agencies anymore which is possibly a reason why crimes are higher than before. Unfortunately, it is becoming the norm of our everyday life. For instance, mass shootings were terrible and they would affect the whole nation. This kind of offense was on every news station. As they become common, they were not being brought to our attention as much as they were before. Many people have become desensitized with the amount of crimes occurring. We are so familiar with crimes that it does not really phase us anymore.